Winning Bizness Desk

Mumbai. India is poised to become the world's fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Currently, India's nominal GDP stands at $4.19 trillion, closely trailing Japan's $4.18 trillion.

India to Become World’s Fourth-Largest Economy

If the current growth momentum continues, India is expected to surpass Japan and become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the third quarter of 2025. Japan’s GDP currently stands at $4.4 trillion. Moreover, by the second quarter of 2027, India could also overtake Germany (currently at $4.9 trillion GDP) and climb to the third spot globally, according to IMF projections.

Over the past decade, India's GDP has more than doubled, growing by approximately 105% from $2.1 trillion in 2015 to $4.3 trillion in 2025. This rapid expansion positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. If this growth trajectory continues, India is projected to overtake Germany by 2028 to become the third-largest economy.

Path to a $10 Trillion Economy

At the current growth rate, India is expected to add $1 trillion to its economy every 1.5 years, potentially reaching a $10 trillion GDP by 2032. This milestone would further solidify India's position as a global economic powerhouse. ([Wikipedia][2])

Debt Comparison with Major Economies

In terms of national debt, India maintains a relatively strong position. As of March 2025, India's debt is approximately $712 billion, significantly lower than the United States' $36.22 trillion and China's $2.52 trillion.

Understanding GDP and Its Calculation

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country over a specific period. It is calculated using the formula: GDP = C + G + I + NX, where:

• C: Private consumption
• G: Government spending
• I: Investments
• NX: Net exports (exports minus imports)([Wikipedia][1])

There are two types of GDP:

Real GDP: Adjusted for inflation, reflecting the value of all goods and services at constant prices.

Nominal GDP: Measured at current market prices, not adjusted for inflation.

Key Drivers of India's Economic Growth

Several factors contribute to India's robust economic growth:

Private Consumption: Accounts for a significant portion of GDP, indicating strong domestic demand.

Private Sector Growth: The expansion of businesses and industries fuels economic development.

Government Expenditure: Public spending on infrastructure and services supports growth.

Net Exports: While India currently imports more than it exports, efforts to boost exports are ongoing.

Summary Points

• 1. India is projected to become the world's fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan.
• 2. The country's GDP has more than doubled over the past decade, reaching $4.3 trillion in 2025.
• 3. India aims to overtake Germany by 2028, becoming the third-largest global economy.
• 4. At the current growth rate, India could achieve a $10 trillion GDP by 2032.
• 5. India's national debt remains significantly lower than that of the U.S. and China.
• 6. GDP measures a country's economic output and is calculated using consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.
• 7. Key growth drivers include strong private consumption, private sector expansion, and government investment.